Dumb computer and monkeys beat the experts (again)

Analysis by the major news services and news papers have always indicated that simple algorithms such as blind projections do better then the experts in forecasting the markets. A leading news paper in the 90s demonstrated that monkeys throwing darts do better than highly paid stock pickers. A recent analysis by a leading news services shows that the forecast errors are lower if simple projections are used compared to the great forecasters. Why then are we wasting significant time and resources on the financial forecasters? This is an enigma of the financial markets - one that will continue to drain value. We have established that pure intermediation adds no value to the economy in the latest meltdown. However, financial forecasting continues unabated although the record is very clear. A top forecaster recently admitted on TV that she made a single mistake - she did not foresee 9/11. However, she did not say why her forecasts are worse than a simple projection nor has she expounded on how much economic value she may have helped destroy by this activity.