Chasing the fish

A recent study describes the results from a simulation of global warming resulting in changes in fish catches – lower in the tropics and higher at the poles - but no difference is seen in aggregate quantities. This is a reminder that global warming is going to produce winners and losers and not all effects are not going to be negative. Weather patterns are going to shift as well – some areas ushering in more temperate weather and others severe. Over time this is going to create dramatic shifts in Earth’s topology and this may lead to massive migrations from one place to another.

This has happened before. Earth has gone through many such cycles in the past. The current trend is much more gradual than most others. There are many counter cyclical effects at work as well – including the possibility of a magnetic pole reversal – the net effects of which cannot be easily determined. Overall, the end state of such a complex non-linear system, subjected to a variety of man-made and natural shocks, is nearly impossible to predict.

Thus, environmental policies should not be prescriptive – attempting to counter precise forecasts of the future. Rather, they should be flexible, able to manage a variety of possible future scenarios. Such flexibility is critical to move the system to a more favorable position regardless of future outcomes – that are impossible to precisely predict.